推薦產(chǎn)品
3-(4-chlorophenyl)-4-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazole 2-(chloromethyl)-3-methylpyridinehydrochloride 1-(2-bromo-4-methylphenyl)ethanone 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbonitrile 5,8-dichloropyrido[3,2-d]pyridazine 2-bromomalononitrile 2-(4-(bromomethyl)phenyl)benzo[d]thiazole 1-(bromomethyl)-3-methoxy-2-nitrobenzene 6-bromo-1H-[1,2,3]triazolo[4,5-b]pyridine 4-iodo-2-((trimethylsilyloxy)methyl)thiazole 6-iodoimidazo[1,2-a]pyridine-3-carbonitrile 2-(4-chlorophenyl)-2-morpholinoacetonitrile 4-chloro-7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidine 4-chloroisothiazole 5-bromo-6-chloro-1H-indole 7-chloro-3H-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine ethyl3-(4-formylphenyl)propanoate 2,3-dibromobenzaldehyde 1-(5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-7-yl)ethanone 5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-5-one 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbaldehyde (E)-2-(3-oxoprop-1-enyl)benzaldehyde methyl4-formyl-3-nitrobenzoate 5,6-dimethoxy-2,2-dimethyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-inden-1-one 1-methylbicyclo[4.1.0]heptan-3-one 3-nitro-4-(trifluoromethoxy)benzaldehyde 2-hydroxyquinoline-6-carbaldehyde 2-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)benzaldehyde 1-(2-fluoro-4-methoxyphenyl)propan-2-one tert-butyl3-fluoro-4-oxopiperidine-1-carboxylate tert-butyl3-oxopropylcarbamate 2,2-dimethylcyclohexanone 9H-carbazole-3-carbaldehyde N,N-dimethyl-2-oxoacetamide 2-methylpent-4-yn-2-ol 3-tert-butyl-4-hydroxybenzonitrile 4-bromo-2-tert-butylphenol 1,3-dibutoxypropan-2-ol methyl4-hydroxyquinoline-6-carboxylate methyl3-cyano-4-hydroxybenzoate 4-chloro-6-methoxyquinolin-7-ol 3,4-dihydro-2H-benzo[b][1,4]oxazin-7-ol 2-(2-aminothiazol-5-yl)ethanolhydrochloride (R)-ethyl2-chloropropanoate (S)-4-amino-5-(4,4-dimethylcyclohexylamino)-5-oxopentanoicacid (1s,4s)-4-hydroxycyclohexanecarboxylicacid (S)-2-(tetrahydrofuran-3-yloxy)aceticacid (1S,4R)-1-methyl-4-(prop-1-en-2-yl)cyclohex-2-enol (R)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one (S)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one 化工資訊 2019年單晶取代多晶成為絕對主流,行業(yè)集中度繼續(xù)提升,頭部企業(yè)收入凈利維持高增長。2020年初以來疫情導致產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價格大跌,加速二三線低效產(chǎn)能退出,市場進一步向頭部企業(yè)集中。組件價格大幅下跌有望在疫情緩解之后刺激需求回暖甚至爆發(fā),五一節(jié)前電池價格已經(jīng)反彈,供需格局改善,行業(yè)走過至暗時刻。前期核心標的相比滬深300顯著超跌,當前產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈需求和價格已開始回暖。
2019年收入凈利高增長,2020Q1受疫情沖擊階段性下滑。2019年光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)27家上市公司合計實現(xiàn)銷售收入2734億元,同比增長17%;歸母凈利潤207億元,同比增長31%;平均銷售凈利率9%,ROE約11%,資產(chǎn)負債率56%。各環(huán)節(jié)盈利能力最強的分別是通威的硅料、隆基的硅片、通威和愛旭的電池、信義的玻璃、晶盛的爐子。2020Q1受疫情沖擊各項指標階段性下滑。
供給端:疫情加速二三線產(chǎn)能退出。2020年初以來,疫情先是導致國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)停頓,后又導致海外市場突然萎縮,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈開工率普遍下調,光伏主產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈和配套產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價格均大幅下跌,部分二三線產(chǎn)能停產(chǎn),頭部大廠憑借成本和渠道優(yōu)勢爭奪存量訂單,加速低效產(chǎn)能退出。
需求端:組件價格降幅比肩531沖擊,需求有望爆發(fā)。2018年531之后組件價格跌幅20%,刺激2019年海外需求增長45%。2019年Q3和近期電池價格大跌,帶動組件價格又跌了20%。疊加MBB+半片等高密度封裝技術和M6大硅片的普及,電站BOS更低,國內(nèi)EPC報價已經(jīng)看到3元/瓦,光伏電站在海外大部分地區(qū)實現(xiàn)平價,疊加海外零利率甚至負利率金融環(huán)境,需求有望在疫情緩解之后逐步恢復并爆發(fā),帶來新一輪裝機潮。
