推薦產(chǎn)品
3-(4-chlorophenyl)-4-phenyl-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazole 2-(chloromethyl)-3-methylpyridinehydrochloride 1-(2-bromo-4-methylphenyl)ethanone 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbonitrile 5,8-dichloropyrido[3,2-d]pyridazine 2-bromomalononitrile 2-(4-(bromomethyl)phenyl)benzo[d]thiazole 1-(bromomethyl)-3-methoxy-2-nitrobenzene 6-bromo-1H-[1,2,3]triazolo[4,5-b]pyridine 4-iodo-2-((trimethylsilyloxy)methyl)thiazole 6-iodoimidazo[1,2-a]pyridine-3-carbonitrile 2-(4-chlorophenyl)-2-morpholinoacetonitrile 4-chloro-7H-pyrrolo[2,3-d]pyrimidine 4-chloroisothiazole 5-bromo-6-chloro-1H-indole 7-chloro-3H-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine ethyl3-(4-formylphenyl)propanoate 2,3-dibromobenzaldehyde 1-(5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-7-yl)ethanone 5H-chromeno[2,3-b]pyridin-5-one 3-chloroisoquinoline-4-carbaldehyde (E)-2-(3-oxoprop-1-enyl)benzaldehyde methyl4-formyl-3-nitrobenzoate 5,6-dimethoxy-2,2-dimethyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-inden-1-one 1-methylbicyclo[4.1.0]heptan-3-one 3-nitro-4-(trifluoromethoxy)benzaldehyde 2-hydroxyquinoline-6-carbaldehyde 2-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)benzaldehyde 1-(2-fluoro-4-methoxyphenyl)propan-2-one tert-butyl3-fluoro-4-oxopiperidine-1-carboxylate tert-butyl3-oxopropylcarbamate 2,2-dimethylcyclohexanone 9H-carbazole-3-carbaldehyde N,N-dimethyl-2-oxoacetamide 2-methylpent-4-yn-2-ol 3-tert-butyl-4-hydroxybenzonitrile 4-bromo-2-tert-butylphenol 1,3-dibutoxypropan-2-ol methyl4-hydroxyquinoline-6-carboxylate methyl3-cyano-4-hydroxybenzoate 4-chloro-6-methoxyquinolin-7-ol 3,4-dihydro-2H-benzo[b][1,4]oxazin-7-ol 2-(2-aminothiazol-5-yl)ethanolhydrochloride (R)-ethyl2-chloropropanoate (S)-4-amino-5-(4,4-dimethylcyclohexylamino)-5-oxopentanoicacid (1s,4s)-4-hydroxycyclohexanecarboxylicacid (S)-2-(tetrahydrofuran-3-yloxy)aceticacid (1S,4R)-1-methyl-4-(prop-1-en-2-yl)cyclohex-2-enol (R)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one (S)-4-(hydroxymethyl)oxazolidin-2-one 化工資訊 由于地產(chǎn)以及相關(guān)行業(yè)占國內(nèi)銅消費(fèi)的近半壁江山,且地產(chǎn)銅消費(fèi)中約70%是電線電纜,因此我們通過估算單位面積的銅消費(fèi)來判斷明年地產(chǎn)行業(yè)對(duì)銅消費(fèi)的影響。
商業(yè)地產(chǎn)電線電纜的消費(fèi)主要在電力和綜合布線兩部分,而住宅主要在電力和家庭裝修兩部分,通過假設(shè)和估算,一年整體房地產(chǎn)的銅消費(fèi)大約為380萬噸至480萬噸。
銅消費(fèi)增速與地產(chǎn)竣工增速保持同步,從新開工和銷售都領(lǐng)先竣工的關(guān)系來看,明年竣工可能會(huì)呈現(xiàn)上半年加速下半年放緩的走勢(shì),因此地產(chǎn)所帶動(dòng)的銅消費(fèi)恐怕也會(huì)呈現(xiàn)前高后低的走勢(shì)。
我們計(jì)算得到的中性預(yù)期都是明年竣工增速大概在5% - 6%的水平,中性預(yù)期下明年整體銅消費(fèi)增速約為6.3% - 6.6%,而地產(chǎn)所拉動(dòng)的銅消費(fèi)大約為450萬噸的水平,悲觀情況下地產(chǎn)對(duì)銅消費(fèi)的拉動(dòng)會(huì)在這個(gè)基礎(chǔ)上減少約50萬噸,而樂觀情況下會(huì)增加約60萬噸。
